One sentence in the latest report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) may come as a surprise at first glance: global arms exports have more or less stagnated and barely changed compared to the period from 2010-2019. But a closer look at the individual countries points to the dramatic geopolitical changes currently shaking up the world order.
The reports showed that the dominance of US in exporting or selling the arms has been increased amid some unsettled situation in the world order.
Ukraine has been the largest recipient of heavy weapons in the world in the period from 2020-2024. The country attacked by Russia has increased its imports almost a hundredfold, a breathtaking development, compared to the period from 2015-2019. Almost 9% of all global arms exports ended up in Ukraine.
Russia's aggression and fear of the US
In the same period, arms imports from other European countries rose by 155%. This is also a direct consequence of Russian aggression, which began in February 2022. According to SIPRI researchers in Stockholm, the reason for this is also uncertainty about the future direction of US foreign policy.
"The new arms transfers figures clearly reflect the rearmament taking place among states in Europe in response to the threat from Russia. However, some major arms importers, including Saudi Arabia, India and China, saw large declines in import volumes for a variety of reasons, despite high threat perceptions in their regions," says Mathew George, one of the authors of the new report.
According to the report, 35 countries have participated in arms deliveries to Ukraine in the period between 2020 and 2024, around 8.8% of all global imports. The US accounted for 45% of all deliveries, followed by Germany with 12% and Poland with 11%.
These ratios once again clearly show how problematic it would be if the US, under the new President Donald Trump, actually withdraws military support for Ukraine altogether. Ukraine was the only European country among the top ten arms importers worldwide in the period between 2020-2024, although other European countries also significantly increased their arms orders and deliveries.
"With an increasingly belligerent Russia and transatlantic relations under stress during the first Trump presidency, European NATO states have taken steps to reduce their dependence on arms imports and to strengthen the European arms industry," said Pieter Wezeman, a senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfer Program.
"But the transatlantic arms-supply relationship has deep roots. Imports from the US have risen and European NATO states have almost 500 combat aircraft and many other weapons still on order from the US," he added. Donald Trump was already US President from 2017 to 2021 and took office again in January of this year. This week, he halted military support for Ukraine following an unprecedented dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Whether it will stay that way has yet to be seen.
US remains biggest arms exporter, Russia falls behind
The United States remains the biggest exporter of weapons worldwide and delivered to a total of 107 countries between 2020 and 2024. "The US is in a unique position when it comes to arms exports. At 43%, its share of global arms exports is more than four times as much as the next-largest exporter, France," said Mathew George.
Russia, on the other hand, exported 63% fewer weapons between 2015 and 2024, and in 2021 and 2022 the total volume was the lowest in the past two decades. No wonder: apparently the country was already arming itself in preparation for war rather than selling weapons elsewhere.
"The war against Ukraine has further accelerated the drop in Russia's arms exports because more weapons are needed on the battlefield, trade sanctions make it harder for Russia to produce and sell its weapons, and the US and its allies pressure states not to buy Russian arms," Wezeman said. If the country was still selling weapons, it was mainly to China and India.
Stagnation in volume but with major shifts
While arms imports by states in the Middle East fell by 20% between 2015-19 and 2020-24, four of the ten largest recipient countries of weapons from 2020-2024 were states in the Gulf region: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Kuwait. Four other countries in the top ten recipients came from Asia and Oceania: India, Pakistan, Japan and Australia.
Siemon Wezeman, another senior researcher at SIPRI, is surprised that so little attention is paid to this: "While arms imports to Europe and the Middle East continue to grab media attention, Asia and Oceania remained the largest arms-importing region in the world in 2020–24, as it has been almost invariably since the early 1990s."
Despite the war in the Gaza Strip, which began in October 2023, there was virtually no change in Israel's arms imports between 2015 and 2024. The Israelis have mainly used weapons that had already been supplied to them, primarily from the US, according to the SIPRI report.
The global arms trade is stagnating in terms of overall volume, but the changes between the countries that ultimately receive the weapons are serious.
Further developments are also rapidly emerging on the horizon: Germany, for example, plans to invest astronomical sums into the Bundeswehr and further support for Ukraine over the next few years, with experts predicting a figure of around €400 billion ($543 billion).
As SIPRI already reported in December 2024, the turnover of the 100 biggest arms industries worldwide increased by 4.2% to around $632 billion in 2023 alone.
Source: DW
Bd-pratidin English/Lutful Hoque
