Not every war creates disruption across the world. The Russia-Ukraine war has continued for more than four years and still remains largely a regional conflict, though some of its effects have been felt in Europe.
Ukraine is a major supplier of food grains to Europe and is often called Europe’s “breadbasket.” Before the war began, Ukraine exported more than $40 billion worth of food grains annually.
Bangladesh also used to import wheat from Ukraine. In the early days of the war, a Bangladeshi cargo vessel, Banglar Samriddhi, was damaged by shelling or a missile strike at Ukraine’s Olvia port on the Black Sea, killing the ship’s third engineer. The vessel was later allowed to leave the port safely.
The Ukraine war no longer makes headlines regularly and much of the world seems to have forgotten the conflict is still ongoing. But the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran have triggered impacts being felt globally. As fears grow over what a prolonged war could do to the global energy market, concern is mounting worldwide. Bangladesh has already begun feeling the pressure through an energy crisis.
Nearly two months have passed since the attacks on Iran began. While the United States may see it as a “limited war,” its impact on global oil supplies has made the situation increasingly complex. Despite a declared unilateral ceasefire by Washington and prospects of a second round of Iran-US talks, uncertainty has deepened due to a naval blockade imposed on Iran.
Against the backdrop of the global oil crisis, Iran announced reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but because of the US naval blockade, the strait has effectively remained shut since April 23 except for limited exceptions. After Iran’s Revolutionary Guard detained several vessels, normal navigation through the vital waterway has become nearly impossible.
Citing the International Energy Agency, Reuters reported that from the start of the war on February 28 to April 22, more than 300 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a 95 percent drop in traffic. A route through which an average 138 ships passed daily before the war has now dropped to only five to six vessels a day.
With nearly 20 percent of the world’s crude oil and LPG transported through this route, supply disruptions have already made conditions fragile for countries dependent on oil from the region.
Like many countries, Bangladesh has also fallen into difficulty due to shortages of crude oil. Because of supply disruptions, the country’s only oil refinery, Eastern Refinery, has remained temporarily shut since April 14. Though the government says there is no energy crisis, signs of stress are visible. Prices of all types of fuel have risen, and the government has introduced various measures, including load-shedding, to conserve fuel.
According to the latest estimates, Bangladesh currently has 2.8 million barrels of fuel stored in 370 facilities nationwide, more than last year, though reserves are depleting quickly as replenishment has slowed. Government data released on April 15 showed the country had over 100,000 tonnes of diesel in stock, enough for 12 to 14 days. Authorities say additional supplies from other sources are expected in the meantime.
So the fuel situation may remain manageable for now, and there may be no immediate cause for panic. Yet the government’s decision to raise diesel prices by Tk15 per litre has already increased irrigation and transport costs, pushing up prices of essentials.
Although the Middle East is not Bangladesh’s direct source of crude oil imports, the two other major sources, Malaysia and Singapore, are not sufficient to meet domestic demand. Nor is it possible to sharply raise imports from those sources overnight.
As a result, even if the war ends soon, Bangladesh may take a long time to absorb the current shock, while risks remain of further fuel price hikes.
It is not just fuel oil. LPG cylinder prices used for household cooking have also risen sharply. According to newspaper reports, within four weeks of the US-Iran war, the price of a 12.5kg LPG cylinder rose from Tk900 to Tk1,500.
When the minimum wage for a worker in Bangladesh is only around Tk12,500, how can a low-income family survive inflation if the price of an LPG cylinder alone rises by Tk600?
Bangladesh’s LPG importers have already warned that uncertainty in shipping routes has pushed LPG transport costs from $100 per tonne to $275 per tonne. There is little doubt this will have an inevitable impact on the domestic market.
It can reasonably be assumed that if the war situation remains stuck in its current deadlock, LPG prices in Bangladesh may rise again soon.
Importers may consider diversifying supply sources beyond the Middle East by importing LPG from Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and China, so Bangladesh does not face sudden shortages of such an industrial input due to future international or regional crises.
Besides household cooking, LPG is widely used in poultry, garments and textiles, ceramics, food processing, metal works and chemical industries.
Any shortage in LPG supply and rising prices could push many industries in Bangladesh — especially the fully export-oriented garment sector, toward severe distress.
Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest garment exporter. In 2023, garment exports to the European Union and the United States totaled nearly $47 billion, accounting for 80 percent of the country’s export earnings.
In 2025 alone, Bangladesh’s garment exports to the United States grew 12.36 percent, reaching $2.66 billion.
Therefore, any disruption in LPG supply could have long-term negative consequences for the production and export of the country’s main export item.
Bangladesh imports nearly $12 billion worth of crude oil, LNG and other petroleum products annually — equal to 37 to 41 percent of export earnings.
This was the import bill before the US attack on Iran at the end of February, when global crude oil prices were below $70 per barrel. Within a week of the war, prices surged to $119.
Though the spike was temporary, fuel prices at the consumer level in the US, particularly diesel, rose by more than $3 per gallon.
While crude has now eased and stabilized around $105-106 per barrel, and consumers in stronger economies like the United States may see some relief, countries with weaker economies such as Bangladesh rarely see prices come down once they rise.
Moreover, Bangladesh has to provide substantial subsidies in the energy sector every year.
If Bangladesh now has to import crude and petroleum products at higher prices amid the current shortage, annual fuel import costs could rise at least 50 percent from $12 billion to around $18.5 billion.
Even by raising retail prices, it may be difficult for the government to absorb such a burden.
The challenge is even greater because Bangladesh lacks export diversification beyond garments. The main buyers of Bangladeshi garments are the United States and European Union countries.
With energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz disrupted by the US-Iran war, Europe too is facing significant energy shortages.
As those countries spend more to deal with the crisis, garment imports may decline in coming months, raising fears of reduced export earnings for Bangladesh in European markets.
Remittance inflows may also face adverse effects due to instability in the Middle East.
In 2025, Bangladesh exported garments worth 19.41 billion pounds sterling to EU countries, accounting for nearly half of its total apparel exports.
At a time when there are already indications Bangladesh’s garment exports to Europe may fall 4 percent in 2026 amid competition from China and India, the war may further shrink that market.
If no effective ceasefire is reached between Iran and the United States, geopolitical uncertainty across the Middle East and Gulf region is likely to keep oil markets volatile in the coming months.
If fears of a prolonged war persist, oil prices may keep climbing. Even if prices stabilize, supply disruptions may continue because of insecurity in maritime routes.
Since the war began, nearly 25 vessels have reportedly come under attack by one side or the other. Ships willing to operate despite the risks will face higher insurance costs, adding to oil prices.
Overall, the current energy situation carries no good news for countries like Bangladesh.
If Bangladesh wants to build energy security for the future, it must think seriously about achieving that capacity.
As more than 95 percent of the country’s energy demand depends on imports, reducing that dependence requires urgent investment in renewable energy infrastructure, as well as realistic plans for oil and gas exploration in the Bay of Bengal.
The current crisis is not only a warning about war-driven vulnerability, but also a reminder that energy security can no longer remain a long-term aspiration, it has become an immediate necessity.
The writer is a senior journalist based in United States
