After the 13th National Parliament election, no matter which party wins, running the country will not be easy for anyone. Especially in the economic sector, the elected government will have to face many challenges because the interim government is going to leave without completing the ongoing financial sector reform activities.
The elected government will have to complete the unfinished tasks. Again, if the ongoing financial sector reforms are stopped midway, it will create more crises in the macroeconomic environment. At the same time, the month of Ramadan will begin after the elections. Eid-ul-Fitr will come. That is also an additional pressure.
There is an extreme slowdown in business and trade around political uncertainty and elections. As a result, the government's revenue collection situation is very fragile. Similarly, if income and employment do not increase, the common people will be under more pressure. No new investment has come. Employment has not increased. Many factories have closed in the last 14 months. Millions of people have become unemployed. The number of people going abroad has also decreased. Again, the pressure to repay foreign loans has also increased. Added to this is the challenge of LDC graduation. There is no doubt that the financial pressure on the new government will increase even more than it is now.
Meanwhile, an additional Tk 80 thousand crore taka will be required to implement the new pay scale for government employees. Not only that, Tk 1 lakh 31 thousand crore taka will be required to fully implement this pay scale. Although this will increase the financial pressure on the government, the purchasing power of government employees will increase, which will have an impact on all types of markets, including daily necessities. The final result of this may be higher inflation. Inflation pressure in the country has been close to double digits for several years.
Furthermore, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) is facing a major deficit halfway through the fiscal year. Revenue collection fell by about Tk 46 thousand crore taka compared to the target in the first six months (July-December) of the current 2025-26 fiscal year. This deficit may exceed lakhs of crores of taka by the end of the year. On the other hand, it has not been possible to restore customer confidence in the sinking banking sector despite the political change. On the contrary, defaulted loans have increased to a record amount. Although there is a fair balance in the production and distribution system in the agricultural sector, the condition of the industrial sector is very fragile. There is no new investment. The pressure to repay foreign loans is constantly increasing.
Analysts say that if the national elections are held as per the schedule set by the Election Commission, the new government will take office in just 20 or 22 days from now. Immediately after taking office, the biggest and most immediate challenge for the new government will be controlling the Ramadan market. However, this Ramadan market is not just a seasonal pressure - it is mainly an additional pressure of high inflation, weak supply system, low investment, revenue deficit, banking sector risks and increasing government expenditure. In order to deal with these multi-dimensional crises simultaneously, the new government will have to make tough financial decisions on the one hand, and on the other hand, it will have to handle political and social pressure. No matter which party forms the government after winning the elections, public expectations will be skyrocketing for that government. As a result, the government will have to work to rebuild the country by facing these challenges.
In addition, the Awami League, which has been banned from activities after the elections, will definitely not sit idle. If the party starts political activities to regain its lost heritage, the political environment may become turbulent again. This may put the country's macroeconomic situation under severe pressure before it can turn around, believes Dr. Zahid Hossain, former chief economist of the World Bank Dhaka.
According to the sources, government operating expenses have increased significantly during the interim government. The cost pressure is increasing due to general and special promotions in public administration, increases in various allowances, expansion of training programs, and multiple committees and initiatives. At the same time, the pressure to implement a new salary structure has already started, which may further increase the cost in the future. There has also been extreme stagnation in development spending. In the 2024-25 fiscal year, only 67.85 percent of the allocation was implemented in the Annual Development Program (ADP), which is the lowest in a decade and a half.
In the first five months of the current 2025-26 fiscal year, only 11.75 percent of the ADP was implemented. This has affected employment, domestic demand, and overall economic growth. It has not been possible to reopen the factories that were closed after the July movement. This has made many people unemployed again.
On the other hand, the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) says that the biggest challenge for the next elected government will be to restore investment and control inflation. The organization's executive director, Dr. Fahmida Khatun, said, “If investment does not increase, employment will not be created, people's real income will not increase and inequality will deepen. Political uncertainty, infrastructural weaknesses, bureaucratic complexity, tax system pressure, high interest rates, weak contract implementation and energy crisis are discouraging investment. The new government will have to start its journey keeping these problems in mind.”
As a result, she believes that this journey will not be easy at all.
(Translated by Lutful Hoque)
