Global population growth is raising the demand for food, while the degradation of natural resources and climate change are limiting production, putting food security at risk.
By 2050, the global population is expected to reach 9 billion, raising food demand by approximately 70 percent. However, climate change has made this goal highly uncertain, as the impacts of changing weather patterns negatively affect both production and income, challenging the achievement of food security.
According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), natural disasters caused by climate change have pushed 1.1 billion people—about 18 percent of the 6.3 billion population in 109 countries—into extreme multidimensional poverty. Nearly 900 million people are at risk from climate hazards. The Poverty and Human Development Initiative reports that 880 million people face at least one direct climate-related problem, including 600 million from extreme heat, 570 million from pollution, 460 million from floods, and 200 million from drought.
These impacts severely threaten basic needs such as child survival, housing, sanitation, electricity, and education.
In Bangladesh, the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly severe. Frequent floods, droughts, flash floods, and river erosion are already disrupting agricultural production and destroying infrastructure, causing significant economic losses. If climate impacts are not effectively managed, GDP growth could decline by up to 6.7 percent by 2050. A 4°C increase in temperature could reduce rice production by 28 percent and wheat by 68 percent. Moreover, a 0.65-meter rise in sea levels could submerge 40 percent of arable land in the southern region, seriously threatening food security.
Climate change’s most severe negative impact is observed in Bangladesh’s agriculture. Traditional agricultural technologies alone are no longer sufficient to ensure food security. There is a growing need for advanced technologies, particularly climate-smart agriculture—an approach that helps cope with, adapt to, and mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. This strategy focuses on both adaptation and mitigation, aiming to increase productivity, stabilize output, and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Bangladesh emits approximately 281.38 million metric tons of CO₂-equivalent GHGs annually, consisting of 44.8 percent carbon dioxide, 40.1 percent methane, and 13.1 percent nitrous oxide. Most methane and nitrous oxide emissions come from crop and livestock sectors. Annual per capita emissions are about 1.61 metric tons of CO₂-equivalent. Energy contributes the most (55.7 percent) to emissions, followed by integrated agriculture (37.35 percent), waste (14.26 percent), and industrial processes (3.32 percent).
Carbon from energy comes mainly from electricity, transport, industry, household energy use, and brick kilns. Methane from agriculture is primarily emitted from rice cultivation, livestock digestion, and manure, while nitrous oxide comes from the application of urea and DAP fertilizers. Deforestation, crop residue burning, and fossil fuel use also release CO₂. Currently, roughly 41 percent of methane comes from crops, 52 percent from livestock, and 7 percent from fisheries.
Countries pledge to reduce GHG emissions through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Bangladesh’s third NDC (3.0) targets an unconditional 6.39 percent GHG reduction by 2035 using domestic efforts, with an additional 13.92 percent reduction conditional on foreign support, totaling 20.31 percent. Sectoral targets include 26.66 percent in energy, 7.71 percent in industry, and 11.46 percent in overall agriculture. Studies indicate that emissions from crops, livestock, and fisheries are increasing.
Mitigation measures in agriculture focus on managing chemical fertilizers, water, waste, livestock, and fisheries scientifically. Examples include subsoil urea application, liming to reduce soil acidity, alternate wetting and drying in irrigation, and precision technology to optimize water, fertilizer, and pesticide use. Livestock management emphasizes high-quality feed and proper waste handling. Solar-powered irrigation and fishing boats are also being introduced. However, overall efforts to reduce GHG emissions in agriculture remain limited, and research progress is slow.
Adaptation efforts to cope with climate change are more visible in agriculture. Flood, drought, salinity, and waterlogging-tolerant crop varieties have been developed and adopted. Examples include short-duration, salinity-tolerant, flood-tolerant, and drought-tolerant rice varieties developed by Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) and Bangladesh Institute of Nuclear Agriculture (BINA). Innovations are also present in wheat, maize, jute, and Napier grass. Yet, the gap between research and field-level adoption remains large and needs reduction. Crop rotation, diversification, intercropping, and integrated cropping systems are also being used to mitigate climate impacts. Regional variations in rainfall, temperature, and soil type guide crop planning—for instance, Barendra regions follow different crop sequences than the plains. These strategies maintain soil health, environmental balance, and ensure higher yields and economic benefits, contributing to food security.
Bangladesh’s agriculture is highly sensitive to climate change. While production has been affected, the combined efforts of scientists and farmers have led to productivity gains. Net outcomes remain positive, but future challenges are substantial. More emphasis is needed on research, development, and technology transfer, with increased financial and policy support. Farmers should be educated and trained in climate-resilient technologies, ensuring the participation of women. Coordination among farmers, researchers, extension workers, development partners, and government and private employees is essential. Funding remains a critical issue, as agriculture currently receives a small share of climate finance.
Achieving the 2035 GHG reduction target will cost Bangladesh approximately $117 billion, with 23 percent from domestic resources and 77 percent reliant on foreign funding. Securing this financing will depend on Bangladesh’s negotiation capacity. The COP-30 conference, held in Belém, Brazil from 10–21 November 2025, provides an opportunity for Bangladesh’s representatives to advocate for global climate finance, renewable energy, and loss and damage assistance. Agriculture is likely to be a key focus of these discussions.
Author: Agricultural Economist
