After the departure of the autocratic regime, the interim government announced the budget for the fiscal year 2025–26 last June with the determination of “building a non-discriminatory and sustainable economic system.” Breaking the tradition of growth support, it was declared at that time as an inflation-control budget.
However, though inflation decreased slightly in the first two months of the fiscal year, it increased again in the third month, September. The general inflation stood at 8.36 percent, which was 8.29 in August. During this time, export earnings continuously decreased by 4.61 percent. The import of capital machinery has long remained at the bottom. As a result, the burden of unemployment and poverty is increasing.
At present, about 3 million people in the country have newly become unemployed. At least 28% of the population is living below the poverty line. Experts believe that because of this, the macroeconomy is moving on a rather directionless path.
In addition, in the first month of the fiscal year, a revenue deficit of about Tk 6,500 crore has been created. In the previous fiscal year, this deficit was about Tk 1 trillion (1 lakh crore). A new record has been set for non-performing loans in the banking sector, amounting to Tk 5 trillion (5 lakh crore). Private sector credit growth has fallen to the lowest level in 22 years. Overall, economic growth is being hindered.
Therefore, experts think that even after one year of the interim government, there has been no significant change in people’s living standards.
Export Earnings Decline
Despite various crises in the economy, export earnings had been somewhat stable. But this time that hope has begun to break. In August and September, exports decreased again. According to the statistics of the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), after a decrease of about 3 percent in August, export earnings fell further by 4.61 percent in September.
Revenue Deficit Increases
In the first two months (July–August) of the 2025–26 fiscal year, there has been a shortfall of Tk 6,577 crore in customs and tax collection. During this period, the National Board of Revenue (NBR) had a revenue collection target of Tk 61,000 crore, but collected only Tk 54,423 crore — a deficit of Tk 6,577 crore.
Due to movements and unrest in the NBR in May and June, there was a large-scale revenue shortfall. In the previous fiscal year, at least Tk 1 trillion (1 lakh crore) less revenue was collected than the target.
Poverty and Unemployment Have Increased
In a span of three years, poverty in the country has increased by about 10 percent. Currently, the poverty rate is about 28 percent. In 2022, this rate was 18.7 percent.
Apart from that, 18 percent of households are at risk of falling below the poverty line. Various private research organizations have expressed concern that they may fall below the poverty line at any time.
At the same time, a large number of industrial factories have closed down in the past year. As a result, about 3 million people have lost their jobs and joined the ranks of the unemployed.
According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), in the second quarter of the 2024–25 fiscal year, unemployment increased by 4.63 percent, bringing the total number of unemployed people to 2.7 million.
Due to a decline in women’s participation in the labor force, this rate has become even more concerning.
ADP Implementation Has Decreased
Compared to July and August of last year, which passed amid political turmoil, the Annual Development Programme (ADP) implementation in the first two months of the 2025–26 fiscal year has lagged.
In July–August this year, 2.39 percent of the allocated ADP funds were spent, which was 2.57 percent in the same period of the 2024–25 fiscal year.
Private Sector Credit Growth at the Lowest in 22 Years
Due to political instability and high loan interest rates, stagnation has appeared in private sector investment, which has been reflected in the banks’ credit growth as well.
Private sector credit growth has fallen below 7 percent. In August, it was 6.35 percent, the lowest in 22 years.
Industry insiders say there are no new investments. Some parts of existing factories have also been shut down.
Since the Bangladesh Bank has increased policy interest rates, the cost of borrowing has risen. As a result, entrepreneurs are reluctant to take risks on new projects.
Non-Performing Loans Have Increased
Non-performing loans (NPLs) in the country’s banking sector have taken on a terrifying shape. For the first time in history, the amount of such loans has exceeded Tk 5 trillion (5 lakh crore).
According to preliminary estimates of the Bangladesh Bank, as of June 2025, total NPLs in the banking sector stood at Tk 5,30,428 crore, which is about 30 percent of total disbursed loans.
In the span of three months, NPLs increased by more than Tk 1 trillion, and within a year, by Tk 3,19,036 crore. Within one year, defaulted loans increased by 150.91 percent.
Even during January to June of this year, loans increased by Tk 1,84,663 crore, or 53 percent.
Only Remittance Has Increased, Current Account Surplus Also Up
Only the increase in remittance inflows has continuously raised the current account surplus.
In July and August of the current fiscal year, Bangladesh recorded a current account surplus of USD 483 million. In the same period of the previous fiscal year, this surplus was USD 191 million.
According to the latest data from the Bangladesh Bank, 18.4 percent growth in remittance income has helped maintain balance in the current account.
This positive trend in remittance has further strengthened the country’s overall external sector.
Bd-Pratidin English/ AM
