The age-old adage that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics has once again proven true in Bangladesh’s political landscape. Two long-time allies have now become bitter rivals. The BNP and Jamaat, once partners, now stand on opposing sides. With the national election approaching, they face each other directly. The BNP-Jamaat confrontation is not only a test of popularity but also a battle of political strategy. The key question is whether the BNP truly understands Jamaat’s game plan.
Since the July revolution, Jamaat has continued to deliver one political surprise after another. Back in 2013, many doubted whether the party had any future at all. Yet today, it has re-emerged as a significant force in national politics. Many analysts liken Jamaat to the mythical phoenix, rising anew from the ashes of near destruction.
When the trials of war criminals began in 2010, the party plunged into a crisis. Its top leaders were arrested, while most of its first-rank leaders were sentenced to death for war crimes. Jamaat lost its registration and its party symbol. In the 2018 election, 20 Jamaat candidates contested only under BNP’s mercy, using BNP’s electoral symbol, the sheaf of paddy. That very Jamaat has now become BNP’s biggest headache in politics.
Despite cases, attacks, repression, and persecution, the Jamaat’s resurgence has become a remarkable example for political parties not just in Bangladesh, but worldwide. Since 2013, Jamaat’s activities have been practically banned in Bangladesh – they are not allowed to hold rallies or public gatherings. Yet, like an underground movement, they remained reorganised covertly. By infiltrating other parties, they gradually built resistance against the then-Awami League government. Most notably, Jamaat’s student wing, Islami Chhatra Shibir, infiltrated the Bangladesh Chhatra League in large numbers and built networks inside it. During the 2024 movement, these infiltrators played a crucial role. Jamaat’s role in the July revolution was also highly significant, especially in building strategic ties with the leadership of the anti-discrimination student movement.
After the mass uprising of 5 August 2024, Jamaat and its affiliates came out openly. It then became evident that they had strong footholds in administration, law enforcement, judiciary, universities and other state institutions. Quietly and patiently, Jamaat had built networks across all levels of society. This is where Jamaat fundamentally differs from the BNP and other parties. The party failed to recognise Jamaat’s long-term strategy.
Since August 5, the lure of power has gripped the BNP, with some of its members focused on seizing assets left behind by Awami League leaders, while others are striving to assert local control. This left room for propaganda against the BNP. Meanwhile, Jamaat had already embraced the strategy of dominating social media since 2013. They launched well-organised campaigns on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter and other online platforms. They even recruited trained full-time workers just to manage social media. With this, Jamaat left all other political parties far behind.
Since 5 August 2024, Jamaat has combined all these strategies. With its dedicated cadre force, dominance on social media and loyalists placed in key administrative posts, Jamaat re-emerged on the political stage in a new form, leaving the BNP and others stunned. Analysts say the BNP initially underestimated Jamaat, assuming their old ally remained unchanged. But they realised the truth during the Dhaka University Central Students’ Union (DUCSU) election – Jamaat was breathing down their necks. The DUCSU and Jahangirnagar University Central Students’ Union elections proved that disciplined organisation, social media influence, administrative networks and smart election strategies can defeat even the most popular parties.
After these student elections, the BNP finally woke up, realising Jamaat’s presence everywhere. BNP leader Ruhul Kabir Rizvi even lamented that Jamaat had infiltrated every layer of the administration, making free and fair elections impossible. But his words fell flat. Once again, the BNP was outmanoeuvred by Jamaat’s strategy.
BNP leaders are now branding Jamaat as an extremist, communal force, but perhaps it is too late. During this year’s Durga Puja, Jamaat reappeared with a new face. Its leaders spoke of secular values and visited puja pavilions. BNP leaders also visited some pavilions, but Jamaat’s dominance on social media helped them gain far more visibility.
Shedding its old image as a rigid Islamist party, Jamaat is now presenting itself as a moderate, liberal and democratic force. To spread this message internationally, Jamaat has held meetings with Western diplomats, at least a dozen in the last month alone. Influential Western powers are closely observing Jamaat’s new positioning. In the past three months, Jamaat’s shift away from its traditional anti-India stance has also been noticeable. In short, Jamaat is quietly transforming its politics as a part of its strategy. The question remains if the BNP is able to comprehend this. The upcoming election will be a battle between Jamaat’s strategy and BNP’s popularity.
It is true that the BNP still maintains a strong organisational network nationwide, along with a broad support base beyond its own members and activists. At present, it remains arguably the most popular political party in the country. But can the BNP translate this public support into actual votes? The answer will become clear by February. One thing is certain – the upcoming election will be a tough test for the party. A complacent attitude of “we have already won” could easily lead to an unexpected defeat.
Audite Karim is a writer and a playwright. Email: [email protected]
