For a healthy and strong body, food consumption is essential. However, it is not enough just to eat; one must eat nutritious food. Food consumption generates energy in the human body, which enables a person to remain active. A healthy labourer earns more wages than an ailing one.
This is a kind of cycle—good health leads to higher productivity, higher wages, greater consumption, and better health. The reverse is also true. Across the world, the uproar over rising food prices is largely because of this. General inflation reduces people’s real income, where higher wages bring less food home than before.
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According to recent statistics from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), a person needs to consume 2,100 kilocalories of food energy daily to maintain healthy living. The monthly expense for this should be about Tk1,800. Officially, this is considered the food poverty line. That is, if a person cannot earn at least Tk1,800 a month, they are considered food-poor, and expected productivity cannot be achieved from them.
However, according to a recent estimate by the World Food Programme (WFP), one now needs to spend Tk3,051 per person per month to consume the minimum level of food energy required for survival. This means the expense for minimum healthy living is about 70% higher than the food poverty line. For a well-off person, this increase may not be significant, but for a daily wage laborer, it is a noose around the neck.
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Experts say there are several categories of poor in the country: some fall far below the poverty line, consuming only 1,800 calories a day; some slightly below it, perhaps consuming 2,000 calories; and some barely above the line. The last group can sink below with just a small shock. Conversely, those slightly below may rise above with favorable conditions.
Years ago, Mahabub Hossain and Abdul Bayes showed that in rural Bangladesh, 33% of households are currently poor; another 33% are not poor today but could be tomorrow. In other words, many people, while living just above the poverty line, remain extremely vulnerable. A minor economic shock could push them below the poverty line. Economists estimate this vulnerable group to be at least 20 million people.
For example, a recent study found that nearly 3 million people fell into poverty within the past year. Sociologists argue that these people are currently enduring the worst suffering. Many are reducing spending on healthcare and education to cover food costs. As a result, there is strong concern that illness and illiteracy will rise, thereby diminishing society’s overall productive capacity.
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According to BBS, the daily minimum of 2,100 kilocalories for a person is calculated through a food basket consisting of 11 essential food items. These are: rice, wheat, lentils, milk, edible oil, fish, meat, potatoes, other vegetables, sugar, and fruit. Based on data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey 2022, consuming these foods in the required proportions costs at least Tk1,800 per person per month. Spending less than this makes it impossible to obtain adequate nutrition.
It should also be noted that eating does not always translate into increased work capacity. About 60% of the food we consume daily is used simply to maintain body heat, blood pressure, pulse, and other fixed costs. Only beyond that does additional food increase work capacity. Moreover, with aging, even increased consumption may not improve productivity.
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Thus, in recent years of rampant inflation, the BBS-defined food poverty line no longer aligns with reality. The good news is that general inflation is currently declining, but complaints remain that food prices have not fallen significantly. Nutritionists say rising costs are reducing people’s purchasing power. Consequently, people are buying less and eating less. This creates health risks for a large portion of the population.
Even though people continue to eat rice, they are being forced to cut back on fish, meat, fruit, and milk. This has the most severe health impact on children and adolescents.
According to WFP data, an analysis of each item in the food basket shows that the minimum daily calorie requirement now costs Tk3,051 per month per person. A 19% rise in rice prices is one of the main factors driving this increase.
Prices of chicken, eggs, edible oil, onions, green chilies, and all types of vegetables have also pushed up the cost of essential food consumption.
Public health experts warn that rising nutrition costs are likely to worsen malnutrition and disease prevalence in the country. They point out that insufficient food consumption hampers children’s physical and mental development, increases malnutrition, and lowers disease resistance even among adults. As a result, diseases spread more widely, and national productivity falls.
Malnutrition disrupts the body’s balance. Children lose weight and become stunted. Pregnant women lose the ability to give birth to healthy babies. Heart disease becomes more prevalent. Altogether, this leads to the creation of an unhealthy nation, reducing productivity and pushing the economy backward, while rising healthcare costs add additional economic pressure.
Reports have also shown that food insecurity is more widespread in rural areas than in cities. According to the latest government figures, 18% of the population is below the poverty line. Inflation and food insecurity have hit this group hardest. However, the percentage of people suffering from food insecurity is even higher than the poverty rate. In other words, those living above the poverty line are also struggling under the burden of high inflation.
A recent UN food agency report stated: 20% of Bangladesh’s population suffers from food insecurity. 30% (3 out of 10 people) cannot afford sufficient food. Among low-income groups, the rate rises to nearly 36%. 29% of people are coping with the situation by cutting back on food expenditure. 71% are adjusting by reducing overall household spending.
Economists believe that 20 million people living just above the poverty line are now in precarious conditions due to high inflation. Many are being forced to cut spending on healthcare and education. These vulnerable groups are slipping below the poverty line. The solution lies in quickly boosting market stability and investment. But this cannot be resolved within just a few months. Although the government has taken measures, people’s expectations remain much higher.
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Nobel laureate Amartya Sen pointed out long ago that food shortages or even famine can occur despite adequate food supply. Therefore, improving food production is important, but not sufficient. People must have the purchasing power to buy food from the market. Such an opportunity arises from two sources—increasing employment and lowering prices of goods.
At present, both of these elements are lacking, which is why unrest is spreading everywhere.
The writer is an Economist, and the former Vice-Chancellor of Jahangirnagar University
