The seeds of the "Minus Two Formula" were sown after the BNP came to power in 2001. On 11 January, 2007, through the declaration of a state of emergency, those seeds sprouted in name of "One-Eleven." The attempt to eliminate both leaders and both parties failed at that time because of Begum Khaleda Zia’s prudence. But she had to pay the price for that. For about 18 years, Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman endured inhuman persecution.
Meanwhile, Sheikh Hasina compromised with the key actors and enjoyed uninterrupted power for 16 years. Yet, in the end, she could not escape— as part of the Minus Formula, she had to leave the country. Her party, the Awami League, was left in a pitiful state.
Now the target is Begum Khaleda Zia, Tarique Rahman, and the BNP. The process of eliminating this nationalist force has begun in a new form, and it is advancing rapidly. The DUCSU and JUCSU elections are merely symptoms of this process. But since Islami Chhatra Shibir emerged victorious in both elections, it has ironically benefited the BNP. For that reason, BNP should even thank Shibir—because these two elections served as a red warning signal for the Minus process aimed at BNP.
If a doctor can identify the disease, then treatment becomes easier, and the patient recovers while the doctor gains reputation. Similarly, if BNP can realize, after these DUCSU and JUCSU elections, what the disease is and where the pain lies, then elimination will be easier. If the BNP leaders and activists continue to follow the policy of 'putting cotton in their ears and tying a sack on their backs,' it's only a matter of time before they are minus.
Sheikh Hasina herself got caught in the net of the "Minus Two Formula" out of lust for power—almost like cutting one’s own nose to spite another. That is why, after losing the 2001 election, she launched various phases of movements against Begum Khaleda Zia. The outcome of that unrelenting movement was the demand for an unconstitutional and undemocratic system. Under Fakhruddin and Moeen Uddin, a civil-military coalition government was formed. In reality, it was a military-controlled government with a civilian face. On the issue of who would head the caretaker government in the run-up to elections, political violence escalated, leading to the 11 January, 2007 state of emergency—known in political history as “One-Eleven.”
In his book In Quest for Peace: Memoirs of Time, then Army Chief General Moeen U Ahmed described in detail what happened that day. He wrote: “I informed the President about the overall situation, the elections, the ultimatum from opposition political parties, and the position of foreign states, especially the United Nations’ firm stance. I explained in detail the disaster that could occur if Bangladeshi troops were withdrawn from UN missions. The Chiefs of the Navy and Air Force also tried to make the President understand the gravity of the situation. The military officials then presented their arguments in favor of declaring a state of emergency, which the President Iajuddin Ahmed could not ignore. Finally, by resigning from the post of Chief Adviser, the President declared a state of emergency in the country.”
After Fakhruddin and Moeen Uddin took over, many events unfolded inside the country. Within two months, more than 200 political leaders and businessmen were arrested. On 7 March, 2007, Tarique Rahman was suddenly arrested from his cantonment residence. This created panic nationwide. After his arrest, he was brought to a Dhaka court wearing a bulletproof vest and helmet, and placed on a 10-day remand for interrogation. He was subjected to inhuman torture during remand. Standing in the courtroom dock, Tarique Rahman described how during remand he was kept blindfolded and handcuffed for 18 out of 24 hours, hung from the ceiling, dropped, and physically tortured. His arrest was mainly intended to pressure Khaleda Zia—so that she would leave the country with her two sons. But she never bowed to such pressure.
Eventually, corruption cases were filed against both the BNP leader, recently retired Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, and Awami League President Sheikh Hasina. Later, on July 16, 2007, Sheikh Hasina herself was arrested. Her arrest was mainly an attempt to create division between the two leaders. The architects of One-Eleven thought that Khaleda Zia would be pleased at Hasina’s arrest, since Hasina was responsible for creating the One-Eleven situation. If such division could be created, it would be easier to eliminate both. But they miscalculated—Khaleda Zia strongly condemned Hasina’s arrest and mistreatment in court. On 18 July, 2007, she issued a statement expressing deep regret, condemning the arrest, and even calling for Hasina’s immediate release.
After this, the army-backed government realized that eliminating both at once was not possible. So they took alternative measures. Many politicians and businessmen were arrested to spread fear. Intense pressure was also exerted on Khaleda Zia to leave the country with her sons, but she refused. She never chose the path of saving only herself and her family—she put the nation above everything. Former Election Commissioner Brigadier General (Retd.) M Sakhawat Hossain wrote in his book Five Years in the Election Commission that there were widespread suspicions Khaleda Zia would eventually go abroad with her sons. But since she did not, the planners adopted harsher measures.
On 3 September, Khaleda Zia, along with her son Arafat Rahman Koko, was arrested. Later, the regime changed course again—DGFI initiated a new arrangement with Sheikh Hasina, leading to her release on 11 June, 2008. Two days later, she traveled to the U.S. via London, returning on 30 September. On her return, she told journalists at the airport that if Awami League came to power, all activities of the caretaker government would be legitimized, and that AL would also participate in the elections. This statement shifted the political course.
Meanwhile, Khaleda Zia still refused to take part in elections, knowing that they were rigged to give BNP only 30 seats. She was pressured repeatedly in prison meetings by army officers to join elections, but she held firm, refusing even after being threatened with new corruption cases. Ultimately, due to pressure from military intelligence and appeals from BNP Secretary General Khandaker Delwar Hossain and ally Jamaat-e-Islami, she agreed to talks.
Foreign diplomats were also highly active during the One-Eleven process. U.S. Ambassador James F. Moriarty sent several cables to Washington, later revealed by WikiLeaks. On 21 August, 2008, he reported that negotiations were underway for the release of Khaleda Zia and Tarique Rahman, but deep mistrust prevented a final agreement. He mentioned that both BNP insiders and caretaker government officials confirmed to him that a settlement was close. Later, on 3 September, Tarique Rahman was released after 18 months in jail, and on 11 September he left for London with his family. On the same day, Khaleda Zia was also released from prison. Although the Minus Two Formula failed then, BNP remained the target.
The One-Eleven of 2007 was a political and military revolution. By compromising with the failed revolutionaries, Sheikh Hasina managed to stay in power until 2024. But in the 2024 student-people’s revolution, she could not escape the Minus Formula. In the face of mass fury, she effectively eliminated herself, and with her, the Awami League was also eliminated. It should not be assumed that the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government happened only after students and citizens took to the streets—the strings of that revolution were in other hands. Both domestic and foreign actors now hold another agenda: eliminating BNP.
Just like during One-Eleven, both local and foreign forces are equally active today. Added to that are Generation Z and the information technology revolution. The new revolution and the new Minus Formula against BNP are now very active. If BNP can read the early tremors—like the DUCSU and JUCSU elections—as warning signs of a bigger political earthquake, it may survive. But if its leaders and activists fail to realize the message, then the nationalist force’s last stronghold may be swept away by hostile currents.
The writer is the Executive Editor of Bangladesh Pratidin
