Global trade is on track to surpass $35 trillion in 2025 for the first time, marking a significant milestone, but the outlook for 2026 is more cautious, according to a new report from the United Nations. The UN's trade and development agency, UNCTAD, highlighted that East Asia and Africa are expected to lead the growth, while U.S. imports remain strong, and Chinese imports are lagging behind, reports AFP.
If current projections hold, global trade will grow by approximately $2.2 trillion, a 7% increase compared to 2024. Of this increase, goods trade is expected to contribute $1.5 trillion, up 6%, while services trade will rise by $750 billion, an increase of nearly 9%. Despite this growth, geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and uneven global demand have slowed momentum, particularly in the third quarter of 2025.
Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD forecasts a more subdued growth trajectory. The agency cited slower global economic activity, rising debt levels, higher trade costs, and persistent uncertainty as key factors that will dampen trade performance next year. Geopolitical fragmentation and vulnerability in certain economies are also expected to pose significant risks to global trade.
The report also pointed out sectoral trends, with manufacturing trade rising by 10% over the past four quarters, driven by demand for electronics linked to artificial intelligence (AI). However, the automotive sector saw a 4% decline in trade during the same period.
While 2025 is set to see a record-breaking surge in global trade, the future remains uncertain, with multiple factors poised to impact global economic stability and trade activity in 2026.
Bd-pratidin English/ Jisan
