El Nino is expected to strengthen rapidly into a strong climate event between July and September, increasing the risk of extreme weather across many parts of the world, the United Nations' weather agency said on Friday, reports AFP.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said El Nino had already developed in the tropical Pacific and was forecast to intensify over the coming months.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, altering global wind, rainfall and pressure patterns. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts about nine to 12 months.
According to the WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, forecasts from leading climate centres indicate a rapid transition to a strong El Nino event during July-September.
The agency classifies El Nino events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, meaning the current event is expected to reach the third-highest category.
Forecast models show sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2 degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions of the Pacific, with strong agreement among climate models, the WMO said.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the strengthening El Nino would increase the likelihood of droughts, heavy rainfall, heatwaves and marine heatwaves in many regions.
"This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions," she said.
The agency said it was expanding early warning support to help governments prepare, particularly in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and public health.
"Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities," Saulo said.
The WMO forecast above-average temperatures across most land areas between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north from July to September.
Rainfall patterns are also expected to shift, with above-normal rainfall in parts of the southwestern United States and below-normal rainfall across the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.
The WMO said there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. However, it warned that global warming can amplify their impacts because warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather, including heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
The previous El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record, while 2024 became the hottest year ever recorded, with global temperatures about 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
Bd-pratidin English/ Jisan
