The next elected government is set to face three major challenges in the power and energy sector, with a severe gas crisis, rising risks of load shedding, and mounting unpaid dues to private power producers topping the list.
The most pressing challenge is the acute shortage of natural gas, which is already disrupting both residential and industrial supply. Energy officials warn that meeting electricity demand during the upcoming Ramadan, irrigation season and peak summer months will be extremely difficult without ensuring adequate fuel supply. Failure to do so could lead to widespread load shedding.
The third challenge lies in the huge unpaid bills owed to private power plants. The interim government has been unable to clear these dues, leaving the next government to shoulder a heavy financial burden. Without settling the arrears, uninterrupted power generation may not be possible.
Load shedding of 1,000 to 1,200 megawatts has already begun in different parts of the country. If demand rises further during Ramadan, electricity shortfalls could reach as high as 2,000 megawatts, sector insiders warn.
At a virtual inter-ministerial meeting on January 21, chaired by Energy adviser Adviser Muhammad Fauzul Kabir Khan, Petrobangla cautioned that power generation could be further disrupted as domestic gas production continues to decline.
Kazi Mohammad Saidul Hasan, General Manager of the Operation Division of Titas Gas Transmission and Distribution Company, said that the amount of gas supply to residents is very low now. Titas' demand is 2,400 million cubic feet of gas daily, but it is receiving 1,500 million cubic feet of gas.
Md. Shahriar, President of the Bangladesh Garments Accessories and Packaging Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said that the production costs of the owners have increased a lot while maintaining production with CNG, LPG and diesel due to the gas crisis. The factories of the affected industrial owners are at risk of closure.
Energy expert Dr. Ijaz Hossain said that after 2030, the supply of natural gas will decrease so much that it cannot be used commercially. The current government has not made much progress in exploring gas in the sea.
The power sector is going to face a severe crisis in the next three to four years due to increasing dependence on fuel imports, decreasing natural gas production and decreasing capacity of old power plants. The electricity demand during the irrigation season this year may reach 18,000 MW. If the energy supply cannot be ensured according to the demand in the summer, there is a fear of load shedding of 1500 to 2,000 MW. And since it is Ramadan at this time, the suffering of consumers will also increase.
In the meantime, the Power Development Board (PDB) has sought an additional subsidy of Tk 38,451 crore to meet the electricity demand during the coming Ramadan, national elections, irrigation season and summer. And if this subsidy is not received, the organization fears that long-term load shedding may start across the country from next month. Again, one-third of the gas-based power plants will remain unused during the hot season and Ramadan due to the gas shortage.
According to PDB sources, the total grid-based power generation capacity in the country is currently about 29,000 MW. But in reality, half of this capacity cannot be generated due to various reasons including the fuel shortage. This problem is especially acute during the gas shortage. The arrears of the country's private power plants have reached Tk 30,000 crore. Due to non-payment of bills for a long time, letters of credit cannot be opened for energy imports. Power production is at risk due to non-payment of interest on bank loans and dues to suppliers.
David Hasanat, president of the Bangladesh Independent Power Producers Association, an organization of private power plant owners, told Bangladesh Pratidin, “Each of our power plant owners has arrears of six to seven months to the government. If we do not receive the arrears, we will not be able to open LCs. Then we will not be able to import oil either. And if we do not receive oil, it will not be possible to keep the power plants running.”
Bd-pratidin English/TR
