Bangladesh is likely to experience flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins during July and August due to heavy rainfall in upstream catchment areas, according to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC).
"Bangladesh remains vulnerable to flooding in July and August due to climatic reasons. During this period, heavy rainfall occurs in major river basins and upstream areas, triggering flood situations in the country," said Sarder Udoy Raihan, executive engineer at the FFWC under the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB).
He said flooding is likely in both the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins during the peak monsoon months.
Historical records show that Bangladesh's worst floods have occurred during July and August. The 1988 floods inundated about 82,000 square kilometres, nearly 60% of the country's land area, while the 1998 floods lasted more than two months, killing more than 1,000 people and affecting around 30 million.
Experts say simultaneous flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins poses the greatest threat. In 2004, coinciding flood peaks in the two river systems submerged nearly 30,000 square kilometres in the northeast. More recently, the 2022 Meghna basin floods and the devastating 2024 floods affected more than 13 million people.
Raihan said the FFWC can currently issue flood forecasts for inland rivers up to 10 to 15 days in advance, while forecasts for coastal rivers extend up to three days.
He said low-lying areas of the Brahmaputra basin are already experiencing flooding, with water levels expected to stabilise within five to six days.
The Meghna basin is expected to remain stable over the next few days as no significant rainfall has occurred in the basin or its upstream catchments, he added.
Raihan also warned that a low-pressure system could form over the Bay of Bengal this month, potentially triggering flash floods in low-lying coastal areas.
According to the FFWC's latest flood forecast issued on Thursday, water levels in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river system fell over the past 24 hours but are expected to rise again over the next four days before stabilising on the fifth day.
From July 4 to July 7, the Brahmaputra-Jamuna may flow at warning levels in Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Bogura districts, with nearby low-lying areas likely to be inundated in some places.
Water levels in the Ganges-Padma river system are also expected to rise during the next five days but remain below danger levels.
The FFWC said the Surma-Kushiyara river system in the Upper Meghna basin may continue flowing at warning levels in Sylhet and Sunamganj districts over the next 72 hours, keeping some low-lying areas under water.
Water levels at several monitoring stations, including the Teesta River at Dalia and Tarapur, the Kushiyara River at Fenchuganj and Markuli, and the Someshwari River at Kolmakanda, are currently at their respective warning levels.
Source: BSS
Bd-pratidin English/ Jisan
