Tensions between Iran and Israel have sparked global anxiety, which deepened yesterday when the United States launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, Iran has threatened to target US naval forces and shut down the vital Strait of Hormuz.
The potential escalation of conflict is expected to severely impact the global economy — and Bangladesh is no exception. Business leaders here are increasingly worried. They warn that a full-scale war could significantly increase global oil prices and transportation costs, leading to surging import expenses and rising consumer prices. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, export costs could jump by 30–35%.
Although direct trade between Bangladesh and Iran or Israel is limited, indirect effects are expected to be far-reaching. Many of Bangladesh’s imports pass through the Middle East, and the country’s reliance on remittances and energy imports leaves it particularly exposed.
Shawkat Aziz Russell, President of the Bangladesh Textile Mills Association (BTMA), told Bangladesh Pratidin that war is disruptive for businesses and called for an urgent de-escalation.
Former BKMEA President Fazlul Haque echoed concerns, noting that economic instability in the Middle East affects global trade — and by extension, Bangladesh’s economy.
Dr Fahmida Khatun, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), stressed that ongoing conflict could derail imports of raw materials and fuel inflation. “If businesses cannot import materials, they can’t produce,” she said, warning that rising energy prices would also increase industrial costs, ultimately affecting consumers.
Even without direct trade with Israel or Iran, the global supply chain may be disrupted, impacting prices of technology, medical supplies, and security equipment. “If goods normally shipped via the Middle East need rerouting, costs will rise,” Dr Khatun explained. She added that several Middle Eastern airspaces are already closed, worsening uncertainty.
Shawkat Aziz Russell pointed out that if Western economies suffer, Bangladesh will too — as they are major buyers of Bangladeshi goods. “If they stop purchasing, our businesses will suffer,” he said.
The energy sector remains the most vulnerable. Crude oil prices are already climbing. Analysts warn of higher import costs and pressure on government subsidies. CPD Distinguished Fellow Dr Mostafizur Rahman said Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to energy price shocks. A prolonged conflict would drive up shipping and fuel costs.
Fazlul Haque warned that if Iran follows through on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could skyrocket, causing widespread inflation as transport and production costs spiral.
Bd-pratidin English/ ANI
