Although the Iran-Israel war is ongoing, it has so far been confined to aerial attacks. China has issued a statement in support of Iran, Russia is calling for mediation, and the UK has urged continued diplomatic dialogue for two more weeks. Only Israel has declared its intention to continue attacks, with US President Donald Trump offering encouragement. As other global powers have not shown enthusiasm for escalation, there is currently a sense that the conflict may de-escalate.
I see no real prospect of a third world war. If the conflict were to move into a ground war involving territorial occupation in Iran, only then would a global war become a possibility. A dramatic turning point would be direct US involvement. Israel does not possess the bunker-busting bombs required to strike Iran’s underground nuclear facilities—those are in US hands. If such weapons are used, either by the US or through Israel, the US would effectively become a direct party to the war. In retaliation, Iran could target not only Israel but also American forces stationed in the Middle East. Though Trump has made threats, divisions over direct engagement with Iran are visible even within the US.
Should the war drag on, not only Bangladesh or South Asia, but the entire world will face mounting challenges. The global trade lifeline—the sea route—could come under attack. If maritime routes are blocked or attacked, global oil markets will likely plunge into instability. This would lead to a significant rise in oil and gas prices, potentially pushing many economies into recession.
Bangladesh’s economy, heavily reliant on oil, would also face serious risk. Our factories run on oil and gas. Rising prices would increase production costs, raise commodity prices, and burden consumers. Bangladesh would face broader economic threats. As production becomes more expensive, competing in international markets will become harder, making exports less viable.
Another challenge is the fate of Bangladeshi citizens residing in the Middle East, especially Iran. The government will face pressure to bring them home or relocate them. Discussions have already begun to repatriate 400 Bangladeshi nationals, including embassy staff, from Iran—possibly through the Pakistan border.
Geopolitically, Bangladesh is not a major player, so we don’t foresee significant challenges on that front. However, economically, many challenges loom. Powerful nations typically negotiate long-term contracts for discounted oil during such crises. Some countries also maintain oil reserves. Bangladesh faces limitations in its ability to negotiate such deals or stockpile fuel, which poses serious concerns. We must focus on forming agreements with oil-supplying nations.
Finally, both government and private sectors must prepare strategically for the potential economic shocks, and develop contingency plans to respond to rising fuel prices and broader trade disruptions.
Author: Chairman, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka.
