Country’s political landscape is undergoing significant realignments ahead of the next national election, with parties trying influence amid the absence of the fascist Awami League from the electoral field. While political calculations vary, analysts said that all parties are focused on securing strategic leverage in future power-sharing talks.
Key political parties—including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami, and the newly formed National Citizen Party (NCP)—are separately exploring coalition possibilities, each pursuing different goals while consciously avoiding one another. This has led to an undercurrent of competition over potential partners, especially among smaller political entities.
After the party's activities were banned and its registration suspended, the Awami League is no longer in the field. The political winds are turning in different directions. There are glimpses of new polarization.
According to political analysts, BNP is now in an uncontested position in the country in vote and field politics. Although there is currently some apparent conflict between Jamaat-e-Islami and the new party National Citizen Party (NCP), the future situation will tell whether it is artificial or how far it will go. Several parties, including the NCP, may form an alliance with the AB Party. Again, BNP may also pull them all closer.
On the other hand, there are signs of alliance among several Islamist parties, including the Islamic Andolon. An ally may also be formed among the left-wing political parties to strengthen their base. So that, in the end, negotiations with the big parties can be done well.
Talking to those concerned, the BNP and NCP now have the same position on the 1971 Liberation War and the 24th mass uprising. There are even discussions about forming an alliance between BNP and NCP.
Recently, there has been discussion and criticism among political parties over the 'offensive' slogans used in the anti-fascist student-public movement demanding the banning and declaring the Awami League a terrorist organization, including the provision for party trials of the Awami League in the International Crimes Tribunal Act, and issuing the July Declaration.
BNP policymakers said, “There could have been a systematic movement in front of Shahbag and Jamuna. But if there is an obstacle in singing the national anthem in Shahbag, if some want to shout slogans against BNP, calling it ‘fake, fake’, if some say ‘Golam Azam’s Bangla’, those words will leave a mark in our minds. This does not happen. We have all struggled unitedly. So why, for what reason are such slogans being raised in Shahbag in the presence of some people? Then we have to understand who wants what, who has patriotism. It is time for judgment and analysis, but now.”
Political analyst Professor Dr. Mahbub Ullah told Bangladesh Pratidin that BNP’s position on these two issues – the great liberation war of 1971 and the mass uprising of 2024 – is not new. However, the position of the NCP seems new to them.
“The reason for this may be that the party has understood the aspirations of the people. Another possibility is that since the Awami League will not be able to participate in the elections, the party may have to pull votes (Awami League supporters)”, he said.
Analysts' observations are that there is no end in politics. A dispute between the NCP and Jamaat is seemingly visible. But it may not be in the future.
However, in the new reality, there is no possibility of an alliance between BNP and Jamaat. The Islamic parties may reach an electoral agreement. In that case, what the NCP's position will be is still unclear. Everything depends on the announcement of the election schedule. Again, Jamaat has not yet regained its registration, and the NCP does not have its registration - these are also realities.
BNP Standing Committee member Iqbal Hasan Mahmud Tuku told Bangladesh Pratidin in response to a question about the formation of a new electoral alliance, "What the BNP is doing is not a form of an alliance. We want to go to the people. The parties are discussing the people's demands for elections.”
“BNP wants elections in December. Other parties are also supporting this demand. We are seeing that all political parties are now urgently seeking an election. We will discuss and take everyone's opinions and then do whatever is necessary for the elections.”
“If necessary, all parties will join hands in a movement. But I do not see any need to form a separate alliance for that right now. However, I think this government will give a roadmap for an election before going for a movement. Because Professor Muhammad Yunus is a 'respected person',” he added.
BNP Vice Chairman Dr Asaduzzaman Ripon told Bangladesh Pratidin that what else will happen to polarization in politics? Awami League's activities have been stopped, its registration has also been suspended. They may not be able to participate in the elections.
“The parties that are in the field can compete. Again, some of these parties can come together and form a front together. However, BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman has already clearly stated that if the party comes to power through the people's vote, it will form a government with all the parties involved in the movement to establish democracy,” he said.
Kazi Mohammad Mahbobor Rahman, associate professor of political science at Dhaka University, said that in the end, Islamists will come to one line. Or Islamists may unite in one line before the elections to become an opposition party. Again, there may be a unity among the parties emerging from those who are against discrimination.
Jamaat wants to form a seat-sharing alliance: Jamaat-e-Islami started working with various parties to unite after August 5. Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Islami Andolan Bangladesh, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, and various Qawmi Madrasa-centric parties are in this unity process. However, this alliance will not emerge right away.
In this context, Jamaat-e-Islami Secretary General Mia Golam Parwar recently said that they have put forward the initial talks on forming an alliance. They will meet again in the second phase. There is still communication at various levels internally. This alliance will take its final shape when the election roadmap is announced. Then everything may be clear.
(Translated by Tanvir Raihan)
