With the ruling Awami League's victory in the 12th National Parliament elections seemingly assured, a crucial question hangs in the air who will lead the opposition in the new parliament.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), traditionally the main opposition force, boycotted the polls, leaving a vacuum in the political landscape. While the Jatiya Party, currently the official opposition, is expected to secure roughly 40 seats, its dominance as the leading challenger to the Awami League appears uncertain.
The Awami League's decision to field independent candidates against the Jatiya Party in 13 constituencies has fueled speculation about a surge in independent MPs. Local sources and Awami League leaders estimate that at least 100 seats have strong independent contenders.
Constitutional experts believe that if the number of independent parliamentarians is relatively high, then they can form the main opposition party in the parliament. One of them will be the leader of the opposition.
Former Law Minister Barrister Shafiq Ahmed told Bangladesh Pratidin that if the number of winning independent candidates becomes more than 151, then they can form a coalition government. Similarly, they can also sit in the seat of the opposition party. There is no constitutional bar to it.
Senior lawyer of the Supreme Court MK Rahman said that the winners of the majority seats will form the government. And those who remain will be the opposition party.
“Since independent candidates are more likely to win this time if the result is the same, only independent MPs will be able to sit in the seats of the main opposition party. For this, they should form a coalition and send a letter to the Speaker and decide the party leader,” he said.
The symbol analysis showed that the ruling Awami League is voting with the boat symbol in 264 seats. Independent candidates got 'Eagle' and 'Truck' symbols in 177 seats. Out of 73 candidates who received trucks, 54 were expected Awami League nomination but didn’t get it. 68 out of 104 candidates who got Eagle became independent without getting the nomination of Awami League.
If the independent MPs outnumber the Jatiya Party in the next parliament and form a parliamentary party, there is no law barring them from forming an opposition party.
The ruling Awami League left six constituencies to 14-Allaiance. The candidates of Jasad, Workers Party, and JP are not nominated by AL in these constituencies. Some strong independent candidates have not been nominated by the ruling party in at least four constituencies. The 14 party members like the Jatiya Party are also weak in the polls and are not guaranteed to win.
Due to the fear of defeat, some senior leaders of the Jatiya Party including the current MP have already withdrawn their candidature. The Jatiya Party came to the polls with the condition of removing boats and independent candidates in 26 constituencies to ensure that it becomes the opposition party again. However, the Awami League did not agree to remove independent candidates to make the election look competitive.
(The report was published on print and online versions of The Bangladesh Pratidin on January 7 and rewritten in English by Tanvir Raihan)
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