China is not ready for war, according to a contentious US think tank report that argues the ruling Communist Party’s primary motivation for military modernization is maintaining power, not fighting an overseas adversary.
Under leader Xi Jinping, Beijing has pursued an eye-catching military expansion. Once lagging behind regional rivals, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is now seen by analysts as matching—or in some areas surpassing—the US military. War game simulations have repeatedly shown US forces struggling against the PLA in conflicts near China’s shores, particularly over Taiwan.
Yet a report from the Washington-based RAND Corp. suggests political priorities may hinder the PLA in battle, especially against a peer adversary like the US.
“The PLA remains fundamentally focused on upholding Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule rather than preparing for war,” wrote longtime China expert Timothy Heath in the report, The Chinese Military’s Doubtful Combat Readiness. He argued China’s military gains serve first to strengthen the CCP’s authority, making war less likely.
One example of politics clashing with military readiness, he noted, is the PLA’s allocation of up to 40% of training time to political instruction.
“The trade-off in time that could be spent mastering essential combat skills further raises questions about the PLA’s preparedness for modern warfare,” Heath wrote.
He also pointed to the PLA’s divided leadership structure, where political commissars—tasked with enforcing party loyalty—share authority with commanding officers, potentially slowing battlefield decision-making.
Heath described a conventional US-China war as a “remote possibility” and urged Pentagon planners to focus beyond missiles and bombs to a broader range of Chinese threats.
But other experts dismissed his conclusions, arguing Xi’s military ambitions center on bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control—by force if necessary.
“The warfighting capabilities Xi pursues aren’t the most efficient way to maximize party security,” said Andrew Erickson, a strategy professor at the US Naval War College.
John Culver, a former US intelligence officer for East Asia, also challenged the report’s findings.
“War isn’t Plan A, but it is Plan B if events require—and the PLA’s capacity for such an event is strong and getting stronger,” he wrote on X.
Source: CNN
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