The prospect of Rohingya repatriation remains bleak as continued conflict in Myanmar’s Rakhine State fuels a fresh wave of refugee arrivals in Bangladesh. Despite repeated diplomatic efforts and international pledges, not a single Rohingya has been returned to Myanmar. Instead, the burden on Bangladesh continues to grow, now exceeding 1.3 million Rohingyas.
Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner, stated that the repatriation process has stalled due to the ongoing fighting between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army (AA). “The rebel group has taken control of several regions in Rakhine after displacing government forces,” M Rahman said. “Until the security situation improves, repatriation cannot resume. But we are still pursuing it.”
Earlier this year, interim government Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus and UN Secretary-General António Guterres announced an imminent return process during a visit to Ukhiya’s refugee camps. However, the initiative never moved beyond that declaration. Since then, reports suggest the Arakan Army has been pushing more Rohingyas into Bangladesh, particularly from conflict-ravaged areas like Buthidaung and Maungdaw.
It’s estimated that nearly 100,000 Rohingyas have entered Bangladesh this year alone. The flow is not limited to Myanmar; more than 50 Rohingyas released from Indian prisons recently crossed into Teknaf, where they sought shelter in camps. Abul Ali, one of the new arrivals, said, “We had UNHCR cards in India, but the authorities forcibly deported us. Now we are here in Teknaf.”
Currently, over 1.25 million registered Rohingyas are living in 34 camps across Ukhiya and Teknaf. With new arrivals, the unregistered population is likely pushing the total beyond 1.3 million, creating serious pressure on local infrastructure and resources.
Security analyst Major (retd) Emdadul Islam outlined four major obstacles to repatriation: Myanmar’s refusal to take back the refugees, declining global attention on the issue, instability in Rakhine, and weak diplomatic initiatives from Bangladesh. “Without coordinated action on all four fronts, the repatriation process cannot succeed,” he warned.
Majed Abdullah, chairman of the Kutupalong camp, echoed similar concerns. “The Arakan Army has seized most of northern Rakhine. At least 200,000 Rohingyas there are now displaced. The future is very uncertain for them—and for us,” he said.
As violence escalates and international focus shifts elsewhere, Bangladesh faces mounting challenges in managing a crisis that shows no sign of resolution. The growing refugee population, lack of repatriation progress, and deepening instability in Myanmar continue to strain the region’s humanitarian and political landscape.
Bd-pratidin English/ Jisan
