Much like the ominous stillness before a devastating cyclone, Bangladesh today finds itself in a suffocating calm – marked by fear and uncertainty about what might unfold next, and where. Amid relentless inflation that continues to squeeze the public, several alarming developments have jolted the economy. The fallout could be severe.
The IMF is delaying the release of the next loan tranche. The World Bank reports that three million more people have fallen into extreme poverty over the past nine months. Due to surging food prices, Bangladesh now appears on a red list in the latest “Development Update”. Both the IMF and the World Bank forecast GDP growth to fall below 4% this year. After a brief period of relief, commodity prices are once again rising. Economists are sounding the alarm.
To describe the economy as merely weak would be a gross understatement. Over the past nine months, it has deteriorated to the point of requiring “intensive care.” The industrial sector is reeling with despair, anxiety and uncertainty. Large factories have closed. Many entrepreneurs are withdrawing. High dollar exchange rates, soaring interest on loans, an acute gas crisis, and arbitrary harassment of business owners are pushing the economy towards a bleak impasse. Yet this dire state has failed to receive adequate attention.
No meaningful effort has been made to partner with the private sector in building a “New Bangladesh.” The United States’ new tariff policy has impacted global markets – Bangladesh will not be spared. Meanwhile, rising instability in South Asia adds an additional layer of economic risk.
In any country, politics and economics are inextricably linked. Without sound politics, the economy cannot thrive; and without a healthy economy, political stability becomes tenuous. Bangladesh is currently entangled in both political and economic crises.
It must be remembered that 94% of employment in Bangladesh comes from the private sector, while only 6% is provided by the government. As the private sector declines, job opportunities are steadily vanishing – pushing the nation towards a major economic catastrophe from which recovery may be impossible.
There are two ways out of this crisis.
Firstly, the private sector must be restored to confidence. Harassment of entrepreneurs must cease, and a concerted effort is needed to revive the economy. Industrialists and businesspeople must not be lumped together with willful defaulters, fugitives, and corrupt individuals.
Secondly, political uncertainty must be addressed. An unstable political environment can never support economic recovery. The country must urgently return to the path of democracy. Good governance, accountability, and transparency are essential to saving the ailing economy. For that, elections are imperative. Power must be handed over to elected representatives who can, through dialogue with all stakeholders, formulate and implement a national economic recovery plan.
However, storm clouds are also gathering over the election process. Political divisions are becoming increasingly apparent. Analysts consider this month to be critical to the country’s political future. In the coming days, the trajectory of Bangladesh may be determined by the outcome of talks between political parties and the National Consensus Commission. A minimum consensus must be reached and formalised in a “July Charter” to pave the way for elections. Otherwise, the risk of a new 1/11-style emergency cannot be ruled out.
There is no time to delay on the July Charter. Controversial and unnecessary reform proposals must be shelved – these are not matters for an interim government to address. Issues such as media reform, gender policy, or public administration restructuring should be left to an elected government. The legitimacy of these proposed reforms is already under scrutiny. Some members of these commissions – largely disconnected elites – appear intent on imposing out-of-touch ideas on the public. Their recommendations are not only unrealistic and impractical, but also politically motivated.
The National Consensus Commission was established to unite the nation around a common purpose. Yet many of its proposals are fuelling further division. This raises a critical question: are some commission members deliberately pushing the country towards polarisation? Among them are individuals previously associated with the 1/11 political intervention. Are they now orchestrating a new conspiracy? Their actions suggest an intention to recreate conflict and pit political parties against one another – as happened before. There are concerns that a strategy is being executed to keep an unelected government in place for an extended period.
Why are new controversies being manufactured, generating further political tension and division? Jamaat-e-Islami has suddenly floated the idea of holding local elections first – a move that has further splintered the political landscape. Political parties must act more responsibly and constructively for the sake of the nation.
Politics now resembles a lost sailor – drifting, unable to find a harbour. The interim government has yet to present a clear roadmap. The conclusion of the dialogue with political parties may bring some clarity about Bangladesh’s political future – particularly regarding the timing and structure of the next general election, which will be pivotal in determining the country’s direction.
Ordinary citizens want security, two full meals a day, and a peaceful life. Over the past nine months, they have received none of these.
The interim government has tried many things, but achieved very little. Its greatest failure lies in its lack of prioritisation – or at the very least, in its inability to communicate priorities clearly to the public. Anxiety and uncertainty dominate the national mood. People do not want to live like this. That is why the majority believe the country must return to democracy – without delay.
This month is crucial in determining that outcome. The nation expects the National Consensus Commission to finalise the July Charter based on a minimum consensus – and to do so urgently.
The coming days are critical for Bangladesh. It will soon become clear whether the nation is heading towards elections – or deeper into prolonged uncertainty. Now is the time for all stakeholders to face reality. Only if collective wisdom prevails can the country be saved. Otherwise, Bangladesh is heading into a dark and dangerous tunnel.
Bd-pratidin English/ Afia
