Inflated agricultural production figures are distorting policy decisions, destabilising the essentials market, and creating supply chain disruptions, experts and market analysts have warned, highlighting the urgent need for accurate data to ensure food security and market stability.
They caution that unreliable crop statistics lead to misguided government interventions, unexpected shortages, and price volatility, ultimately affecting both farmers and consumers.
For instance, the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) reported that rice production in the country reached approximately 40.7 million tonnes in fiscal year 2023-2024. However, data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) suggests that actual rice production was closer to 37 million tonnes that year, pointing to an overestimation of 3.7 million tonnes.
The average price of coarse rice in November 2024 hit a 12-year high, according to a USDA report.
This apparent inaccuracy is not evident just in the case of rice BBS’s production data; it is a general tendency of various government agencies to inflate production figures for almost all agricultural crops.
Dr Jahangir Alam, an eminent agricultural economist, told the Daily Sun that incorrect production statistics can lead to miscalculations in food supply and demand.
“If authorities underestimate the need for imports due to exaggerated production figures, sudden shortages may arise and endanger food security. Without accurate data, planning for production, consumption, imports, and export becomes highly problematic, leading to market instability and price volatility,” he said.
“One of the major concerns in Bangladesh’s agricultural sector is the overestimation of production figures. Government agencies frequently report inflated production statistics, which often fail to align with real market conditions. This discrepancy results in supply shortages, triggering price hikes and market instability,” said the economist.
Md Saiful Islam, head of the Agricultural Economics Division at the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI), said, “Our production data is often inflated, which leads to misinformed projections. For instance, crop losses are typically shown to be much lower than they actually are, on the other hand production data also be shown higher than the actual.”
“Our data collection method is not modern; it is being estimated by eye. That’s why there is a gap,” he said.
This lack of accurate data hampers the government’s ability to plan and implement effective interventions, he said.
Several reports indicate that official statistics on staple crops such as rice, potatoes and vegetables often do not align with the actual production levels observed in the field. This discrepancy has created significant market distortions, affecting both farmers and consumers.
Farmers complain that inflated figures lead to an illusion of surplus, which prompts the government to approve higher import costs or lower procurement prices, hurting both the local producers and consumers.
On the other hand, consumers suffer as supply chain disruptions and incorrect assessments cause price volatility in essential food items.
When production data is not accurate, agricultural policies related to subsidies, support programmes, and price controls can be misaligned with ground realities. This also negatively impacts farmers and consumers.
The impact of flawed statistics is evident in recent market fluctuations. For instance, despite official claims of record-high rice production, local markets have experienced unusual price hikes, raising questions about the authenticity of the data.
Experts argue that political pressure and bureaucratic inefficiencies contribute to this issue. Government agencies often face expectations to present optimistic agricultural growth figures, leading to data inflation at multiple administrative levels.
To ensure stable agricultural growth and food security, accurate and transparent reporting of production data is essential, they added.
Courtesy: Daily Sun.
Bd-pratidin English/Tanvir Raihan
