Indian prime minister Narendra Modi started talking to more than a dozen international leaders following the terrorist attack in Kashmir last week, reports the New York Times.
Officials said that diplomats from 100 missions in India’s capital have also filed into the foreign ministry for briefings.
Citing four diplomats, without naming them, the media reported that the effort is not focused on de-escalating tensions with Pakistan, which India accuses of links to the attack. Instead, New Delhi seems to be preparing a case for military action against its rival.
Without naming Pakistan, Modi in a speech on Thursday promised severe punishment and the razing of terror safe havens.
Indicating the volatility of the situation, security forces from both sides have exchanged intermittent small-arms fire across the border, Indian officials reported on Sunday. One official stated the exchanges occurred on two of the past three nights, while another said it had happened for three consecutive nights.
In Kashmir, Indian forces have also begun a sweeping clampdown, arresting hundreds, and breaking into suspects’ homes, as they continue their hunt for the perpetrators.
Earlier, India announced plans to disrupt water flow to Pakistan, ordered the expulsion of some Pakistani diplomats and visitors, while Pakistan responded by suspending participation in bilateral treaties, including one governing the cease-fire along the disputed frontier.
Anti-Muslim sentiment is rising in India, with Kashmiri students facing harassment and many returning home. Five days after the attack that killed 26 civilians, India has yet to identify a group or present strong evidence linking Pakistan, which denies involvement.
Diplomats say India cited Pakistan’s past support for terrorist groups and mentioned ongoing investigations with limited technical evidence. Analysts suggest India either needs more time to gather proof or feels little pressure to justify any future action.
A military clash between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan risks quick escalation, but India faces little global pressure to restrain itself. With its growing diplomatic and economic clout, India has become more assertive. While Iran and Saudi Arabia have reached out to both sides and the UN and EU urge restraint, major powers like the US remain focused elsewhere. Analysts say India sees international support for its pursuit of justice as a green light for stronger action.
Trump administration officials have expressed strong support for India’s fight against terrorism, though it remains unclear how involved Washington will be. Three months into his term, Trump had yet to appoint an ambassador to India, reflecting South Asia’s low priority. Even if the US or others tried to intervene, their influence would be limited, as India sees the Kashmir conflict as strictly a bilateral issue with Pakistan.
The initial response from Washington has been similar to how the first Trump administration dealt with the last major flare-up over Kashmir, in 2019, said Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
That confrontation was spurred by an attack that killed dozens of Indian security forces. The affiliation of the attackers — a militant group called Jaish-e-Muhammad — was more clear.
At that time, the Trump White House signaled support for India. The administration increased its diplomatic pressure for restraint only after India had gotten a punch in on Pakistan, with a cross-border airstrike.
The strike’s damage was disputed. Afterward, as Pakistan moved to retaliate, it got into a dogfight and shot down an Indian jet. The pilot was taken prisoner.
To make up for that fumbled response, all signs this time indicate a desire by India to do “something spectacular,” Markey said. Pakistan has vowed to match and exceed any strike by India.
“The tit-for-tat cycle could move rapidly, and the Indians and Pakistanis have inflated assessments of their own ability to manage escalation,” Markey said.
Unlike with the 2019 terrorist attack, the claims of responsibility for last week’s slaughter have been murky, with information even on the exact number of attackers less than concrete. A little-known group calling itself the Resistance Front emerged on social media to say it was behind the massacre, according to Indian news outlets. Indian officials, in private, say the group is a proxy for Lashkar-e-Taiba, a terrorist organization based in Pakistan.
The lack of clarity may help explain why India has pointed largely to Pakistan’s past support of terrorism in Kashmir to make its case for a military reprisal now. But that approach, before India has laid out its evidence even in private diplomatic discussions, has raised some eyebrows considering the gravity of the escalation. One diplomat privately wondered: Do you want to go to war with a nuclear-armed neighbor based just on past patterns?
Shiv Shankar Menon, a former national security adviser in India, said Mr. Modi had little choice but to take military action after responding with strikes against Pakistan both in 2019 and in 2016, after another terrorist attack in Kashmir. The Indian government is under pressure to respond to a major security lapse in a troubled area that it was projecting as transformed in recent years and where it has been encouraging tourism.
But Mr. Menon said the tit-for-tat between the two adversaries was unlikely to get out of hand.
“I’m not hugely worried,” he said, “because they’re both quite happy in a state of managed hostility.”
Bd-Pratidin English/ AM
