India on Wednesday unilaterally suspended a key water-sharing deal with Pakistan after blaming its neighbour for a deadly rampage at a scenic tourist resort in the illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir state. Islamabad, however, warned that any Indian attempt to stop or divert water in the rivers that the IWT governs will be considered an "act of war" and responded to with all conventional and non-conventional means.
The IWT – which was brokered by the World Bank in September 1960 – determined the rights and obligations of Pakistan and India concerning the use of waters of the Indus River system. The agreement has stood the test of times and has long been hailed as a rare example of cooperation between the two arch-nemeses.
In a highly provocative move, India's Cabinet Committee on Security decided on Wednesday to hold the historic treaty "in abeyance" following the killing of 26 people, including tourists, in Pahalgam, Anantnag district of IIOJK, on April 22. The move was the most significant among a slew of measures the CCS announced to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan.
The CCS decision could have serious consequences for Pakistan – an agrarian economy – where agriculture is nearly 90% dependent on the Indus drainage system. The move is calculated as Delhi believes water scarcity would impact crop yield which in turn would create food insecurity and trigger social unrest in Pakistan.
In the short run, India could stop sharing vital data on water in the rivers flowing into Pakistan, which could have a devastating impact, especially during the upcoming monsoon season when fears of flooding increase manifold.
However, Islamabad dismissed the Indian move saying neither side could suspend or revoke the World Bank-brokered treaty. Pakistan's principal security forum said on Thursday that water is a vital national interest, a lifeline for its 240 million people, and its availability will be safeguarded at all costs.
"Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan as per the Indus Waters Treaty, and the usurpation of the rights of lower riparian will be considered as an act of war and responded with full force across the complete spectrum of national power," read a statement issued after the National Security Committee (NSC) meeting.
Analysts believe that India might use the treaty suspension as an excuse to speed up development on hydroelectric and storage projects along the western rivers, including Pakal Dul, Ratle, Kiru, and Sawalkot, which it hasn't been able to build due to objections to its designs from Pakistan under the IWT.
However, defence and security analysts say that if and when India tries to build any facility to stop or divert water share of Pakistan, Islamabad will militarily take out that facility using its full combat power. Explaining the NSC use of phrase "complete spectrum of national power", one defence analyst said, "It means Pakistan can go to any limit, including the use of nuclear weapons."
Another analyst added that since the NSC has categorically declared that water is "vital national interest" the country's political and military leadership "will not even think for a minute and strike the place which endangers provision of water to Pakistan."
Experts have termed India's decision to suspend the IWT as a political stunt and an eyewash designed to placate the Indian public, stressing that Delhi cannot unilaterally revoke or suspend the agreement. "India or Pakistan cannot suspend or revoke the Indus Waters Treaty unilaterally, and any change in the treaty would require mutual consent," former Pakistan commissioner for Indus Waters (PCIW) Jamaat Ali Shah told The Express Tribune.
He said the IWT is a permanent agreement, and therefore India would have to take Pakistan into confidence to suspend or revoke it. However, Indian officials say that if Pakistan approaches the World Bank, the guarantor of IWT, Delhi could claim that "abeyance" is a temporary suspension, not a breach, and that cooperation can resume once Pakistan address India's concerns.
Source: The Express Tribune
Bd-pratidin English/Lutful Hoque
