The ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel has shaken global energy markets, raising concerns about a direct economic fallout for Bangladesh, which remains heavily dependent on energy imports.
A new assessment by the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling warns that a prolonged crisis could slow the country’s economic momentum, cutting GDP growth while reducing trade activity and real household income.
In a press release issued Thursday, SANEM said the conflict has disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. The disruption is already affecting supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas, raising the risk of sharp price increases in international markets.
Bangladesh, which relies heavily on LNG imports from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, faces growing energy security risks if supply constraints persist.
According to SANEM’s projections, a scenario in which global crude oil prices rise by around 40 percent and LNG prices by 50 percent could reduce Bangladesh’s real GDP by about 1.2 percent. Such a shock would likely slow overall economic activity.
Higher fuel costs would push up production expenses, eroding the competitiveness of Bangladeshi exports. As a result, exports could fall by roughly 2 percent, the study estimates.
Imports are also expected to decline, by about 1.5 percent, as higher prices dampen demand, potentially leading to a broader slowdown in trade.
The burden, however, is likely to fall most heavily on ordinary citizens. The study projects consumer-level inflation could rise by around 4 percent, while real wages may decline by about 1 percent.
This combination would weaken purchasing power and further increase the cost of living, intensifying pressure on households already coping with economic strain.
SANEM warned that the energy-driven shock could also unevenly affect key production sectors, amplifying vulnerabilities across the economy if the conflict continues.
Bd-pratidin English/ Jisan
