Global demand for oil and gas could continue to grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, marking a major shift from its earlier forecasts that expected a rapid transition to cleaner energy sources. The new outlook suggests the world is likely to miss key climate goals, including limiting global warming to 1.5°C, reports Reuters.
In its annual World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based agency projected that under current government policies, global oil demand will reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up roughly 13% from 2024 levels. Overall global energy demand is expected to climb by 90 exajoules by 2035, a 15% increase from today.
The IEA’s current policies scenario accounts only for measures already implemented, not aspirational targets or unfulfilled pledges. The agency last used this scenario in 2019 but shifted in recent years toward modeling aligned with global net-zero commitments. This year’s report drops that “pledges scenario,” citing a lack of updated national climate plans for 2031–2035.
Under its stated policies scenario, which includes announced but not yet enacted measures, the IEA expects oil demand to peak around 2030. The agency stressed that its models are scenarios, not forecasts, meant to illustrate possible outcomes based on policy and investment trends.
The IEA’s revised outlook marks a departure from its previous emphasis on a rapid clean energy transition under the Joe Biden administration, when it projected oil demand would peak this decade and declared that no new oil and gas investment was compatible with the 1.5°C goal.
The shift comes amid renewed pressure from the United States, where President Donald Trump has called for expanding fossil fuel production. His Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, has described the IEA’s earlier peak-demand projections as “nonsensical.” The U.S. remains the agency’s largest financial contributor.
The report notes a surge in liquefied natural gas (LNG) investment, with final approvals for new projects reaching record levels in 2025. By 2030, operations for about 300 billion cubic meters (bcm) of new annual export capacity are expected to begin—boosting global supply by 50%.
Under the current policies scenario, the LNG market grows from 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035, and further to 1,020 bcm in 2050, driven largely by demand from data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) power needs.
Global investment in data centers is projected to hit $580 billion in 2025, surpassing the $540 billion the world currently spends each year on oil supply, the IEA said.
The report also outlines a net-zero scenario, in which global energy-related emissions fall to zero by 2050. However, it warns that in all other modeled pathways, the world’s average temperature exceeds the 1.5°C threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
A reversal would only be possible, the IEA cautioned, if technologies to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere are deployed at scale — a goal that remains uncertain.
Bd-pratidin English/ Jisan
