The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday projected that Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.9 percent in the current fiscal year (FY2024–25), reflecting weaker domestic demand amid ongoing political and economic challenges.
The projection was made in ADB’s flagship publication, the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2025.
ADB’s country director for Bangladesh, Hoe Yun Jeong, released the report at a programme held at the ADB resident mission in Dhaka.
According to the report, Bangladesh’s economy is expected to recover moderately, with GDP growth projected to rise to 5.1 percent in the next fiscal year (FY2025–26).
Hoe Yun Jeong stated that despite facing both external and domestic headwinds, Bangladesh’s economy continues to show resilience—resilience that can be strengthened by implementing crucial structural reforms.
"Bangladesh should diversify its economy beyond the ready-made garments sector by fostering private sector development. Enhancing resilient infrastructure, improving energy security, strengthening financial sector governance, and attracting foreign investment are crucial to accelerating growth, creating jobs, and boosting competitiveness,” he said.
The ADO noted that inflation is forecast to accelerate from 9.7 percent in FY2024 to 10.2 percent in FY2025 due to stifled competition in wholesale markets, inadequate market information, supply chain constraints, and the depreciation of the taka.
The current account deficit is anticipated to shrink from 1.4 percent of GDP in FY2024 to 0.9 percent of GDP in FY2025 as the trade deficit narrows and remittance inflows rise.
The ADO April 2025, however, projected that consumption and investment will grow moderately, driven by strong remittance inflows, though partly offset by contractionary monetary and fiscal policies and investor caution.
Global tariff increases are also expected to affect Bangladesh's exports and economic growth over time, the report said.
On the supply side, services growth is expected to slow due to political uncertainty, vulnerabilities in the financial sector, and reduced household purchasing power.
Agricultural growth is likely to moderate following repeated floods, while industrial growth is expected to improve marginally with a rebound in manufacturing, aided by export growth, according to the ADO.
The growth forecasts were finalised prior to the April 2 announcement of new tariffs by the US administration. As a result, the baseline projections only reflect previously implemented tariffs.
However, ADO April 2025 includes an analysis of how higher tariffs may affect growth in Asia and the Pacific.
Source: UNB
Bd-pratidin English/FNC
